The Missouri Senate Race: Why is it So Important?
Why, exactly, is the Missouri Senate race so important? The reason is this race may well be the decisive one in determining control of the Senate.
Let's take a look at the numbers. At present, the Republicans control 55 seats, the Democrats 45 (Jim Jeffords of Vermont, a registered independent and former Republican, caucuses with the Democrats). To take control, Democrats need to win SIX seats. Five seats would yield another 50-50 senate (which we had in 2001 for a few months) in which Republicans would still be in control due to Vice President Cheney's tie-braking vote.
Six seats is a tall order, and due to the state-by-state breakdown of this year, it is harder than usual. That's why most analysts still think we have less than a 50-50 chance to regain the Senate. Given the national anti-Republican mood, however, a six-seat takeover is possible. Only, that is, if we win virtually every major race.
The most competitive Senate races this year are in Minnesota, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, Connecticut, and maybe Virginia.
Democrats currently hold the Minnesota, Maryland, and New Jersey seats. Both Minnesota and Maryland are open seats in which Democratic incumbents are retiring. Currently, the Democratic nominees in both states are ahead in the polls. We have a strong likelihood of holding these seats.
In New Jersey, recently-appointed Sen. Robert Menendez is facing a tough reelection campaign from State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. (the son of popular former NJ Governor Tom Kean, Sr.) Polls have shown the two roughly tied, Menendez being weighed down by allegations of corruption in a state well known for it. On election night, Menendez will be slightly favored barring anything dramatic. If the national mood stays this anti-Republican, New Jersey, a blue state, will stay in the blue column. Still, this is our most endangered seat and is the most likely pick-up opportunity for the Republicans.
The other Dem-held seat that is undergoing a competitive race is Connecticut. Former Vice Presidential candidate and prominent centrist Democrat, Joe Lieberman, was defeated in the primary by challenger Ned Lamont who ran an anti-Iraq War campaign. Lieberman is now running an independent campaign under the ballot line "Connecticut for Lieberman." Lieberman nevertheless remains a registered Democrat and has pledged that he will caucus with the Democrats if reelected. With the Republican nominee registering in the single-digits, Democrats will hold this seat regardless of whether Lieberman or Lamont wins.
That takes us to the Republican-held seats. To recap, Republicans hold the following seats in competitive races: Pennyslvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana, Missouri, with Tennessee and Virginia following behind. Only Tennessee features an open seat (Bill Frist is retiring to run a no-hope campaign for president).
Democrats are favored in Pennsylvania, a center-left state being represented by arch-conservative Rick Santorum. Democratic nominee, Bob Casey, Jr. has led consistently in the polls and although recent polls indicated the race has tightened, it will be extraordinary if Casey loses.
Current polls also indicate that, at present, Democratic challengers lead narrowly in Rhode Island (discussed previously), Montana, and Ohio. Rhode Island and Pennsylvania are blue states. And although Ohio and Montana are red states, both states feature unpopular incumbents and electorates that are extremely angry at the state-level Republicans.
Assuming that Democrats hold all three of their competitive seats (Minnesota, Maryland, and New Jersey) and assuming that we pick up all four of the just-mentioned states (Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania) that leaves Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia.
To win control of the Senate under the aforementioned conditions, Democrats must win two out of these three races. Out of these, Missouri's is the most competitive. Missouri is also the least Republican state out of all three, with Tennessee the most. It is highly unlikely that Democrats will pick up Tennessee and Virginia without picking up Missouri. It is highly unlikely that Democrats will even be able to pick up both Tennessee and Virginia, regardless of what happens in Missouri. There is very little margin of error. Simply put, if McCaskill doesn't win in Missouri, we will not pick up the Senate.
***
Let's take a look at the numbers. At present, the Republicans control 55 seats, the Democrats 45 (Jim Jeffords of Vermont, a registered independent and former Republican, caucuses with the Democrats). To take control, Democrats need to win SIX seats. Five seats would yield another 50-50 senate (which we had in 2001 for a few months) in which Republicans would still be in control due to Vice President Cheney's tie-braking vote.
Six seats is a tall order, and due to the state-by-state breakdown of this year, it is harder than usual. That's why most analysts still think we have less than a 50-50 chance to regain the Senate. Given the national anti-Republican mood, however, a six-seat takeover is possible. Only, that is, if we win virtually every major race.
The most competitive Senate races this year are in Minnesota, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, Connecticut, and maybe Virginia.
Democrats currently hold the Minnesota, Maryland, and New Jersey seats. Both Minnesota and Maryland are open seats in which Democratic incumbents are retiring. Currently, the Democratic nominees in both states are ahead in the polls. We have a strong likelihood of holding these seats.
In New Jersey, recently-appointed Sen. Robert Menendez is facing a tough reelection campaign from State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. (the son of popular former NJ Governor Tom Kean, Sr.) Polls have shown the two roughly tied, Menendez being weighed down by allegations of corruption in a state well known for it. On election night, Menendez will be slightly favored barring anything dramatic. If the national mood stays this anti-Republican, New Jersey, a blue state, will stay in the blue column. Still, this is our most endangered seat and is the most likely pick-up opportunity for the Republicans.
The other Dem-held seat that is undergoing a competitive race is Connecticut. Former Vice Presidential candidate and prominent centrist Democrat, Joe Lieberman, was defeated in the primary by challenger Ned Lamont who ran an anti-Iraq War campaign. Lieberman is now running an independent campaign under the ballot line "Connecticut for Lieberman." Lieberman nevertheless remains a registered Democrat and has pledged that he will caucus with the Democrats if reelected. With the Republican nominee registering in the single-digits, Democrats will hold this seat regardless of whether Lieberman or Lamont wins.
That takes us to the Republican-held seats. To recap, Republicans hold the following seats in competitive races: Pennyslvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana, Missouri, with Tennessee and Virginia following behind. Only Tennessee features an open seat (Bill Frist is retiring to run a no-hope campaign for president).
Democrats are favored in Pennsylvania, a center-left state being represented by arch-conservative Rick Santorum. Democratic nominee, Bob Casey, Jr. has led consistently in the polls and although recent polls indicated the race has tightened, it will be extraordinary if Casey loses.
Current polls also indicate that, at present, Democratic challengers lead narrowly in Rhode Island (discussed previously), Montana, and Ohio. Rhode Island and Pennsylvania are blue states. And although Ohio and Montana are red states, both states feature unpopular incumbents and electorates that are extremely angry at the state-level Republicans.
Assuming that Democrats hold all three of their competitive seats (Minnesota, Maryland, and New Jersey) and assuming that we pick up all four of the just-mentioned states (Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania) that leaves Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia.
To win control of the Senate under the aforementioned conditions, Democrats must win two out of these three races. Out of these, Missouri's is the most competitive. Missouri is also the least Republican state out of all three, with Tennessee the most. It is highly unlikely that Democrats will pick up Tennessee and Virginia without picking up Missouri. It is highly unlikely that Democrats will even be able to pick up both Tennessee and Virginia, regardless of what happens in Missouri. There is very little margin of error. Simply put, if McCaskill doesn't win in Missouri, we will not pick up the Senate.
***
Competitive Democratic-Held Senate Races:
1. Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Mark Kennedy (R)
2. Maryland
Ben Cardin (D) vs. Michael Steele (R)
3. New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D) inc. vs. Tom Kean, Jr. (R)
4. Connecticut
Joe Lieberman (D) inc. vs. Ned Lamont (D)
Competitive Republican-Held Senate Races:
1. Pennsylvania
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) vs. Rick Santorum (R) inc.
2. Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs. Lincoln Chafee (R) inc.
3. Montana
Jon Tester (D) vs. Conrad Burns (R) inc.
4. Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Mike DeWine (R) inc.
5. Missouri
Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Jim Talent (R) inc.
6. Tennessee
Harold E. Ford, Jr. (D) vs. Bob Corker (R)
7. Virginia
Jim Webb (D) vs. George Allen (R) inc.
1. Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Mark Kennedy (R)
2. Maryland
Ben Cardin (D) vs. Michael Steele (R)
3. New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D) inc. vs. Tom Kean, Jr. (R)
4. Connecticut
Joe Lieberman (D) inc. vs. Ned Lamont (D)
Competitive Republican-Held Senate Races:
1. Pennsylvania
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) vs. Rick Santorum (R) inc.
2. Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs. Lincoln Chafee (R) inc.
3. Montana
Jon Tester (D) vs. Conrad Burns (R) inc.
4. Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Mike DeWine (R) inc.
5. Missouri
Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Jim Talent (R) inc.
6. Tennessee
Harold E. Ford, Jr. (D) vs. Bob Corker (R)
7. Virginia
Jim Webb (D) vs. George Allen (R) inc.
posted by WashUDems_1 at
11:33 PM
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